Alan Fox makes a key point in his posting on "Declining Prices," noting
that "collecting interests and economics tend to go in cycles."

Indeed, they do -- in fact, they go hand in hand.

If your memory is sufficiently long, you'll remember that the periods
during which the prices of our favorite collectibles were rising most
rapidly were those years characterized by exactly the opposite of
today's economic conditions: those were times of high inflation and high
interest rates.

Investors start massive buying of "hard assets" (including all
collectibles) only when returns on conventional financial investments
are being out-run by inflation, and are expected to do so over some
meaningful number of years.  Today, yields on long-term bonds are
falling, as they have been for years, and inflation is hovering at very
low levels.  As long as expectations in the financial markets are for
continued low inflation far into the future, it's not likely that
collectibles will see any "price push" as a result of renewed interest
from investors.

If there is no increase in the number of serious collectors to tip the
balance of supply and demand, which at least could lead to stable
pricing, I believe that further general price declines for mechanical
music are inevitable in this economic environment.  If you'd like to
slip right over into deep depression, consider the impact of a long-term
slight deflationary period on prices in our hobby.

Of course, that deep depression will be reserved for those of us who
have assembled our collections during hot times for collectibles.  Newer
collectors will reap all the benefits of lower inflation.

Would someone please pour me a stiff drink?

Rich Marschner